“Random Walk at the World Cup”

I want to congratulate Mario and Pablo for the sophisticated and well done world cup pool. The instantaneous blogs are very interesting and the whole presentation spectacular I may said that is the nicest thing of this world cup that I enjoying so far. Remembering Barton G. Malkiel best seller book, it should defined this as “Random Walk at the World Cup”

Seen my scores seem that I do know nothing about soccer and that may be true. Also show me that past performances do not mean much.  Something that I learn in my field, the best weather forecast (before computers) was called the consensus forecast. A group of forecasters analyzed weather maps and made an independent forecast, then the consensus forecast come out as the averaged of these forecast. Believed or not that was the forecast that had the best skill scores. Today with sophisticated models, weather centers run simultaneous forecast models in which they change slightly initial conditions and then they use the ensemble forecast of all the runs.

The point that relates to the world cup is that maybe the averaged pool has one of the best score. Actually I do not know if that was true on past world cups, if so, maybe should be included as a possibility for future world cups. A player after making his selection could also beat on the average pool. A point against doing that is the fact that maybe the pool shows who knows and does not know about world soccer. On the other hand if the results are somehow random it will make a lot of sense to use the average as another possibility. I do not know if the suggestion is feasible, I think for me, that was an after though since I realize cannot pick winners, maybe the average could be a consolation prize.