Links
- Links:
- Official Standings (pdf)
- Consolidated Pool File (xls)
- Match Schedule (pdf)
- FIFA.com
- Bloomberg - Visual Data World Cup
- Reuters - Soccernomics
- Game Theory - The Economist
- Goldman Sachs Report (pdf)
- Danske Bank Report (pdf)
- Blog - El Tercer Tiempo
- Birthday Paradox - AFP
- World Cup Phrases to Know
- The Onion - Teams to Watch
- WSJ - World Cup of Everything Else
- NYT - Fan Loyalty
- Penalty Shootouts - The Economist
Monday, June 23, 2014
Thursday, June 19, 2014
México fue una Fortaleza
México fue una
Fortaleza
Más
de 90 minutos pasaron en el estadio Castelao en Fortaleza, Brasil. Los 60
segundos de cada minuto de partido se vivieron y se sintieron al máximo. La
tensión y los nervios eran inmensos tanto para los mexicanos en el Estadio como
para los cientos de millones que lo seguÃan desde la radio, la televisión, el
celular o las redes sociales. Los aficionados mexicanos se dieron cita para
apoyar, nuevamente, al tricolor sin importar que éste se enfrentará al poderoso
y temido local.
En
el Estadio, como era de esperarse, los mexicanos eran minorÃa pero eso no pudo
detener el ánimo, la euforia y el optimismo con la que cada aficionado cantó,
apoyó y sufrió cada minuto con sus jugadores.
El
himno mexicano se entonó con la misma fuerza que se hizo en Natal. Tras
apreciar como los brasileños, a pesar de los millones de reales que esta justa
deportiva les ha costado, cantaron juntos cada palabra de su himno con el
corazón en la mano, se dio el pitazo inicial. ParecÃa que los locales iban a
lograr apagar y opacar las porras mexicanas pero no fue asÃ.
El
ambiente en las tribunas era espectacular. Los mexicanos se hicieron sentir
cantando Cielito Lindo y la tan afamada porra, que la FIFA ahora investiga,
cuando el portero contrario despeja desde el fondo de la cancha. Fue tan poco
el ingenio brasileño en Fortaleza que acabaron copiando el grito para
dedicárselo a nuestro San Memo Ochoa.
Cuando
Neymar tenÃa la pelota, Marcelo desbordaba, Alves controlaba o David Luiz
manejaba el balón, los nervios mexicanos incrementaban al máximo, el corazón
latÃa con toda la fuerza posible y las manos sudaban pues el peligro que puede
generar cualquiera de los jugadores brasileños con el balón es de temer.
Los
jugadores mexicanos tuvieron algunas posibilidades de gol, no muchas pero si un
par. Giovanni, Oribe y el ChÃcharo no dieron su mejor partido pero buscaron la
posibilidad de llevar la pelota hasta el fondo de la red sin éxito. La defensa
estuvo de aplaudir. Herrera, Márquez y el Maza dieron su 110% y quedó reflejado
en el 0-0 del marcador. Detuvieron a Neymar, a Marcelo y a Thiago Silva que se
dice fácil pero estos jugadores, por mencionar algunos, son titulares en los
mejores clubs de futbol del planeta. El Gallito Vázquez recuperó un sin fin de
balones y Guardado, a mi parecer, esta en su mejor momento .
Si
hablamos de buenas actuaciones tenemos que poner en mayúsculas la de nuestro
portero FRANCISCO GUILLERMO OCHOA MAGAÑA. Memo salvó la porterÃa mexicana, la
defendió como si fuera la entrada al cielo, parecÃa que tenÃa un chaleco
antibalas y que con el podÃa parar cualquier balón que fuera rematado en su puerta.
Ochoa tuvo que esperar dos mundiales como suplente para tener un gran momento,
su momento de oro. Tras su actuación demostró como su sacrificio de irse a un
equipo de calidad media como el Ajaccio valió la pena. Memo, tras el Mundial,
va a lograr fichar con un club de mayor nivel donde logrará brillar y dar un
gran e importante salto en su carrera.
El
empate es sin duda un gran resultado para México, cualquier mexicano desde que
sabÃa que enfrentarÃa al local lo hubiera firmado. Tras el partido los
mexicanos festejaron, las calles eran una fiesta encabezada por los seguidores
del Tri.
Los
jugadores con mucha garra, energÃa, entusiasmo y una mentalidad de ganadores se
llevaron de Fortaleza un punto con gran sabor de boca. Pesó más el espÃritu y
las ganas de los nuestros. Es increÃble pensar que un solo jugador como Neymar
Jr. vale más, hablando de dinero, que toda la selección mexicana junta, pero
una vez más el futbol nos da una lección, nos demuestra que éste hermoso
deporte es más que la cantidad de ceros que vale un futbolista o si se juega en
casa o fuera de ella.
El
empate ante Brasil fue excelente pero falta la prueba de oro, ganarle a Croacia
el próximo lunes en Recife, donde una vez más se darán cita miles de
aficionados demostrando porque aquà en Brasil se dice que los mexicanos son la
mejor afición.
Por
el momento, disfrutaremos de otros partidos en donde la tensión sea un poco
menor. Brasil 2014 será un Mundial de sorpresas y la primera ya llegó. España,
la actual campeona, ha sido la primera eliminada. Da tristeza ver partir a una
selección que ha sido tan grande de esa manera tan desastrosa. ¿Será el fin de
una gran era de futbol español?
Ximena
Cervantes Legorreta.
“Random Walk at the World Cup”
I want to congratulate Mario and Pablo for the sophisticated
and well done world cup pool. The instantaneous blogs are very interesting and
the whole presentation spectacular I may said that is the nicest thing of this
world cup that I enjoying so far. Remembering Barton G. Malkiel best seller
book, it should defined this as “Random
Walk at the World Cup”
Seen my scores seem that I do know nothing about soccer and
that may be true. Also show me that past performances do not mean much. Something that I learn in my field, the best
weather forecast (before computers) was called the consensus forecast. A group
of forecasters analyzed weather maps and made an independent forecast, then the
consensus forecast come out as the averaged of these forecast. Believed or not
that was the forecast that had the best skill scores. Today with sophisticated
models, weather centers run simultaneous forecast models in which they change
slightly initial conditions and then they use the ensemble forecast of all the
runs.
The point that relates to the world cup is that maybe the
averaged pool has one of the best score. Actually I do not know if that was
true on past world cups, if so, maybe should be included as a possibility for
future world cups. A player after making his selection could also beat on the
average pool. A point against doing that is the fact that maybe the pool shows
who knows and does not know about world soccer. On the other hand if the
results are somehow random it will make a lot of sense to use the average as
another possibility. I do not know if the suggestion is feasible, I think for
me, that was an after though since I realize cannot pick winners, maybe the average
could be a consolation prize.
Tuesday, June 17, 2014
Any left over doubts about Memo (Mexico's goalie)?
Once again Mexico manages to grow beyond recognition when playing Brazil. What a fun game! this was a 0-0 in which no one that watched the game was bored. At all.
Mexico's goalie was inspired and proves that the coach's decision to start him, after endless delays, was the right one. Clearly, being the goalie of France's worst team during the last couple of years gave him excellent training to stop point blank attacks.
Herrera planned the game brilliantly. The Mexican defenders and midfielders attacked the opposing players the minute the Brazilians touched the ball. They played scrappy football, very aggressive defensively. The coach knew that they would not be able to penetrate the Brazilian defense with short passes, so he instructed the midfielders, including Layun and Aguilar, to take shots from outside the box. Mexico's best chances came this way.
The Mexican team played bravely and smartly against a Brazilian squad which, in paper, has much more talent.
Mexico's goalie was inspired and proves that the coach's decision to start him, after endless delays, was the right one. Clearly, being the goalie of France's worst team during the last couple of years gave him excellent training to stop point blank attacks.
Herrera planned the game brilliantly. The Mexican defenders and midfielders attacked the opposing players the minute the Brazilians touched the ball. They played scrappy football, very aggressive defensively. The coach knew that they would not be able to penetrate the Brazilian defense with short passes, so he instructed the midfielders, including Layun and Aguilar, to take shots from outside the box. Mexico's best chances came this way.
The Mexican team played bravely and smartly against a Brazilian squad which, in paper, has much more talent.
Monday, June 16, 2014
Sunday, June 15, 2014
And then they wonder why they don't feel the 'love'....
True Story: Early last week I was in an elevator in NYC when I heard a young lady speaking on the phone. She was clearly Argentine. When she finished her call I asked her if she was excited about the World Cup.
She said "of course!, I'm so happy it starts on Sunday"
and yes, in my case, some of my best friends ARE Argentine
She said "of course!, I'm so happy it starts on Sunday"
and yes, in my case, some of my best friends ARE Argentine
Saturday, June 14, 2014
Un mojado gran primer paso del Tri
Un
mojado gran primer paso del Tri
La lluvia nunca paró y menos logró apagar el ánimo de todos los
mexicanos que se daban cita en el estadio Das Dunas en Natal para apoyar al Tri
en su primer partido de Brasil 2014.
Tras largas filas para pasar seguridad, que parecÃa peor que un aeropuerto,
los mexicanos lograron comprar una o dos cervezas para calentar garganta y
apoyar a la Selección. El estadio estaba tapizado de camisas verdes, México era
local, un par de cameruneses trataban de apoyar a los suyos pero los mexicanos
eran más tanto en cantidad pero sobre todo en entusiasmo y alegrÃa. El ChapulÃn
Colorado, el Chavo del Ocho, el Santo, Blue Demón, y los penachos estaban presentes en una de las
ciudades del norte de Brasil.
Cunado se escuchó el Himno Nacional, todos los aficionados
soltaron la cerveza para poner la mano derecha sobre el corazón y asà entonar
cada palabra del Himno con una fuerza inexplicable. La piel como erizo y los
ojos llorosos eran algunos de los sÃntomas que se podÃan apreciar en cada
compatriota presente en Natal.
Cinco minutos más tarde se dio el pitazo inicial y con el, los cánticos
del tradicional Cielito Lindo. Los primeros minutos fueron excelentes, el Piojo
con su once inicial estaba logrando dominar el balón, hacer pases correctos y
sobre todo mostrar que los que iban a mandar en el partido y tener control del
balón eran los mexicanos.
La dupla olÃmpica de Dos Santos y Peralta es de recalcar, se
entienden como si llevaran jugando juntos al futbol desde la infancia, no por
nada se le llama el dúo o dupla de oro. En la cancha parece que se comunican de
manera telepática pues saben perfectamente donde y como esta el otro. Tan es
asà que Giovanni logró dos goles, que fueron anulados incorrectamente, en la
primera mitad.
Los aficionados, a pesar de la intensa lluvia, no dejaron de
apoyar a su selección y en todo momento cantaban, gritaban y animaban a su once
titular. El árbitro tras la anulación de los dos goles se llevo un par de
gritos que seguramente su madre no olvidará.
En el medio tiempo los mexicanos recargaron pilas, las colas para
comprar una cerveza eran eternas pero la plática entre compatriotas era tan intensa
y entretenida que los minutos de espera se volvieron rápidos.
Comenzaba el segundo tiempo y con él, el cambio de cancha y abanderado
que parecÃa augurar el éxito mexicano. En el minuto 14 del segundo tiempo una
vez más la mancuerna Dos Santos-Peralta hizo de las suyas. Tras un rebote por
parte del portero camerunense que habÃa sido lanzado por Giovanni, el hermoso
Peralta logró definir hasta el fondo de la red y con ello llegaba el 1-0 que
deberÃa de haber sido un 3-0 mexicano.
Las cervezas volaban por los aires, los aficionados se abrazaban
sin importar si eran conocidos o extraños, las banderas era ondeadas con fuerza
y todo México se unÃa en una sola palabra, GOL!!!!!! Oribe una veza más era el
hombre que definÃa, el que lograba dar a México esperanza, el que con sus
treinta años alegraba el corazón de cientos de millones de mexicanos, Oribe una
vez más era el querido y hermosÃsimo Oribe Peralta, lástima que ahora ya se
americanista, nadie es perfecto!
A partir de ese momento los aficionados no pararon de cantar y
gritar a favor de su selección. Los últimos minutos fueron sufridos por cada
aficionado mexicano pero tras cuatro minutos de compensación, el pitazo final
dio la victoria merecida al cuadro Mexicano. Los 23 jugadores y el cuerpo
técnico se reunieron en el centro de la cancha para aplaudir, merecidamente, a
los aficionados mexicanos que a pesar de la lluvia y las horas de espera se
hicieron sentir como locales estando tan lejos de casa.
Los jugadores hicieron su juego, definitivamente deberÃa de haber sido
otro marcador para el cuadro tricolor pero a pesar de eso nos quedamos con gran
sabor de boca sobre todo con la enorme actuación de Dos Santos, Peralta y
Layún.
Ahora falta esperar al temido Brasil que el martes demostrará si
realmente tiene futbol o va a ser ayudado, una vez más, por el arbitraje o la
FIFA. Aquà en Brasil, tras el primer partido de la selección, se habla de Layún
y el peligro que puede causar en Fortaleza por el costado izquierdo, Camerún le
brindó mucho espacio, desborda muy bien pero al ser derecho sus centros dejan
mucho que desear.
Nos queda esperar y gozar de esta fiesta futbolÃstica mientras se
aproxima el segundo partido de la selección.
Ximena Cervantes Legorreta
Friday, June 13, 2014
Is Tiki Taka Dead?
Oh boy!
I am a die-hard Barcelona fan since the days when Cryuff played there... The Guardiola Barza will go into the history books as one of the best clubs in the history of the game. However, we all saw the beautiful style of Barza's game go into a coma in the last Liga season.... Bayern collapsed against RM using the same tiki taka strategy.
Is today's embarrassing loss to the Dutch team the nail that closes the coffin of tiki taka forever?
Mourinho figured out how to play against it. Simeone shut them down completely this entire last season (Liga and Champions). Now the Dutch team is making this style of play appear completely inadequate to compete against teams that can do two things: defend with pressure and counterattack with speed.
Possession without productivity is useless. Barza learned that, Bayern learned that, can Spain adjust? Many of us thought that the 3-0 loss to Brazil in the Confederations Cup was a fluke. I guess we now know it wasn't.
Thoughts?
PS. Refereeing continues to be pitiful: a) unfair annulments of 2 Mexico goals and b) Penalty in favor or Spain was highly doubtful
I am a die-hard Barcelona fan since the days when Cryuff played there... The Guardiola Barza will go into the history books as one of the best clubs in the history of the game. However, we all saw the beautiful style of Barza's game go into a coma in the last Liga season.... Bayern collapsed against RM using the same tiki taka strategy.
Is today's embarrassing loss to the Dutch team the nail that closes the coffin of tiki taka forever?
Mourinho figured out how to play against it. Simeone shut them down completely this entire last season (Liga and Champions). Now the Dutch team is making this style of play appear completely inadequate to compete against teams that can do two things: defend with pressure and counterattack with speed.
Possession without productivity is useless. Barza learned that, Bayern learned that, can Spain adjust? Many of us thought that the 3-0 loss to Brazil in the Confederations Cup was a fluke. I guess we now know it wasn't.
Thoughts?
PS. Refereeing continues to be pitiful: a) unfair annulments of 2 Mexico goals and b) Penalty in favor or Spain was highly doubtful
Thursday, June 12, 2014
What a rotten way to start the Cup.....
Don't get me wrong, I think Brazil is a better team than Croatia. Furthermore, I think a Cup with Brazil doing well is always a good thing and, I had them winning the match in my brackets.
However, I really hate that matches can be decided so often by blown calls and dives. I have been playing and watching soccer since the early 60's, so I think I would qualify as an 'old timer'. This, nonetheless, does not make me blind to the obvious deficiencies of soccer today vis a vis other major sports. It is time to advance faster in the rule book of soccer: Diving that leads to penalty calls (I mean the free kick inside the box) and/or to yellow or red cards HAVE to be reviewed by instant replay. They are way too important to allow for "human error".
Casual observers of the game may comment that with a final score of 3-1 the penalty gift to Brazil was insignificant. That comment barely deserves a reply. The entire tactical positioning of Croatia changed as a result of that call and they had to become more vulnerable. A situation which Oscar was able to take advantage of.
While many of us may be proud of the fact that the "rest of the world" loves soccer as it is (meaning non-US), I think we have something to learn from the way US sports have progressed. There are three major criticisms of soccer, that I am aware of: 1- low scoring; 2- blown calls; 3- diving. Having played the game my entire life I pay no attention to the first of these criticisms. After all, anyone that has tried to hit a fastball at 110 mph or a golf ball next to the hole from 150 yards can appreciate the skill and beauty of those that can do it well and consistently. It is not boring, it is art. There is as much beauty in a well played 0 -0 game as there is in a perfect game for a pitcher. On the other hand, I think that bad calls that completely alter the game and diving are things that can be changed by FIFA. You cannot stop the flow of a soccer game and review everything. However, you certainly can have a review of cards and penalty kicks. FIFA finally instituted the goal line camera, so that is progress. Now, how about reviewing penalty shots? all of us that watched the game knew withing 30 seconds that Fred dove to get the call. Why can't that be transmitted to the ref? Furthermore, why shouldn't Fred be penalized with one game suspension for diving?
Again, don't get me wrong. I love Brazilian soccer and I am happy they won. Just not that way.
Mario
However, I really hate that matches can be decided so often by blown calls and dives. I have been playing and watching soccer since the early 60's, so I think I would qualify as an 'old timer'. This, nonetheless, does not make me blind to the obvious deficiencies of soccer today vis a vis other major sports. It is time to advance faster in the rule book of soccer: Diving that leads to penalty calls (I mean the free kick inside the box) and/or to yellow or red cards HAVE to be reviewed by instant replay. They are way too important to allow for "human error".
Casual observers of the game may comment that with a final score of 3-1 the penalty gift to Brazil was insignificant. That comment barely deserves a reply. The entire tactical positioning of Croatia changed as a result of that call and they had to become more vulnerable. A situation which Oscar was able to take advantage of.
While many of us may be proud of the fact that the "rest of the world" loves soccer as it is (meaning non-US), I think we have something to learn from the way US sports have progressed. There are three major criticisms of soccer, that I am aware of: 1- low scoring; 2- blown calls; 3- diving. Having played the game my entire life I pay no attention to the first of these criticisms. After all, anyone that has tried to hit a fastball at 110 mph or a golf ball next to the hole from 150 yards can appreciate the skill and beauty of those that can do it well and consistently. It is not boring, it is art. There is as much beauty in a well played 0 -0 game as there is in a perfect game for a pitcher. On the other hand, I think that bad calls that completely alter the game and diving are things that can be changed by FIFA. You cannot stop the flow of a soccer game and review everything. However, you certainly can have a review of cards and penalty kicks. FIFA finally instituted the goal line camera, so that is progress. Now, how about reviewing penalty shots? all of us that watched the game knew withing 30 seconds that Fred dove to get the call. Why can't that be transmitted to the ref? Furthermore, why shouldn't Fred be penalized with one game suspension for diving?
Again, don't get me wrong. I love Brazilian soccer and I am happy they won. Just not that way.
Mario
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